Archive for October, 2010

Alcoa, Inc. (AA) – Buzz Stock of the Day

Thursday, October 7th, 2010

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA), the largest U.S. aluminum increased its outlook for global aluminum demand as markets appear to be strengthening, sending its shares up more than 3 percent in after-hours trading on Thursday.

Alcoa increased its 2010 global aluminum consumption forecast to 13 percent from 12 percent, and noted growing demand for the metal in the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), among others.

Alcoa boasted third quarter profit of $61 million, or 6 cents per share, compared with $77 million or 8 cents per share in the same quarter last year, citing a drop in the price of aluminum and a weaker dollar. Revenue in the quarter rose 15 percent to $5.3 billion on higher volumes in aerospace and increased market share in the building and construction market.
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Analysts on average were expecting earnings of 5 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Analyst Charles Bradford of Affiliated Research Group in New York, told Reuters that the results were better than expected because of cost reductions. “But the metal’s price was pretty obvious. The fourth-quarter metals price ought to be a fair bit better,” he told the news agency.

“One thing that’s important to note, even though the aluminum price has gone up in the last weeks, you typically have lag time until it hits our bottom line, which is typically two weeks,” Alcoa CEO, Klaus Kleinfeld said in an interview with Maria Bartiromo. “We didn’t get much — actually almost nothing of that increase into the third quarter. You would see that coming through in the fourth quarter.”

Watch the full interview below:

Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) Buzz Stock of the Day

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Shares of wine and spirit purveyor, Constellation Brands Inc., (NYSE : STZ) jumped 61 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $18.37 after the company announced better-than-expected second quarter financial results. Although second-quarter net income fell 8.4 percent on lower wine, beer and spirits sales in fiscal Q2 profits, the Company exceeded Wall Street earnings per share predictions and met full-year goals.

For the three months ended Aug. 31, Constellation Brands posted earnings of $91.3 million, or 43 cents per share. In the same period last year, the Company earned $99.7 million, or 45 cents per share. Revenue fell 2 percent to $863 million from $876.8 million. Excluding $17 million in restructuring and other one-time items, the company earned 52 cents per share, beating Wall Street expected earnings estimate of 49 cents per share.

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Chief Executive Officer Rob Sands said in a statement, “While some uncertainty remains in global markets, we are focused on building a stronger business for the future,” said Sands. “We have demonstrated this during the second quarter by generating strong free cash flow, paying down debt and driving profitable organic growth.”

Constellation Brands, Inc, the world’s biggest winemaker by volume, draws more than 90 percent of its sales from moderately-priced wines. Among its 100-plus brands are Clos du Bois, Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi, Blackstone and Ravenswood. Although the majority of sales derives from wine the Company also makes Sdveka vodka as well as operates a wholesale joint venture with Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo SA, importing beers like Corona and Negra Modelo from Mexico, Tsingtao from China and St. Pauli Girl from Germany.

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX) – Buzz Stock of the Day

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Shares of cancer drug developer, Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: CLDX) were up as much as 22 percent from Monday’s closing price, in morning trading on Tuesday after the company announced positive data for its cancer therapy CDX-1401.

“CDX-1401 represents a new generation of off-the-shelf dendritic cell targeted vaccines built upon excellent preclinical activity data,” said Tom Davis, M.D., Chief Medical Officer of Celldex Therapeutics in a statement. ““The initial data from this ongoing study confirm safety and immunogenicity even in patients with advanced cancer who have received multiple prior therapies. CDX-1401 has passed the initial Phase 1 hurdles and we look forward to forthcoming cohorts that will include additional TLR agonists in combination regimens.”

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CDX-1401 is a cancer vaccine designed to activate a patient’s immune system against cancers including melanoma and other cancers that are known to express the tumor antigen NY-ESO-1. The product consists of a fully human monoclonal antibody with specificity for the dendritic cell receptor, DEC-205, genetically linked to the NY-ESO-1 tumor antigen. Celldex has accessed NY-ESO-1 through a multi-year clinical research collaboration with the international Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research. By selectively delivering the NY-ESO-1 antigen to dendritic cells in the body, this product is intended to induce robust immune responses against the antigen-expressing cancer cells.

Here’s Forbes’ report on the data:

The data presented were from a Phase 1/2 dose-escalating clinical trial evaluating three different doses of the vaccine in combination with resiquimod , which is an activator of toll-like receptors 7 and 8 (TLR7/8) and stimulator of immune cells. The study has enrolled 20 patients with advanced cancer, of which 35% had confirmed NY-ESO-1 expression. Six patients maintained stable disease and were eligible for multiple cycles of the treatment regimen, including 4 patients who have received 3 or more cycles (6 weeks of treatment followed by a 6 week rest), with stable disease of up to 11.5+ months. The treatment was well tolerated and there were no dose-limiting toxicities. Robust anti-NY-ESO-1 immunity was induced with the majority of the patients developing anti-NY-ESO-1 antibody responses and 39% of the patients having increases in NY-ESO-1 specific T cell responses, including both CD4 and CD8 responses. Importantly, the T cell responses were directed against multiple regions of the NY-ESO-1 antigen.

Last month, Celldex’s partner Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) pulled out of a strategic partnership to develop the vaccine, and the company said it now plans to develop it on its own.

The finding is yet another example of the potential of cancer immunotherapies — treatments that recruit the immune system to fight cancer.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Dendreon Corp’s (Nasdaq: DNDN) prostate cancer therapy Provenge, the first cancer vaccine. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co’s (NYSE: BMY) immune system treatment ipilimumab also helped to extend the lives of patients with aggressive melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer for which there are few treatment options.

Sirius XM Radio, Inc. (SIRI) – Buzz Stock of the Day

Monday, October 4th, 2010

Shares of satellite radio service provider, Sirius XM Radio, Inc. (Nasdaq: SIRI) were up more than 2 percent from Friday’s closing price, in morning trading on Monday after the company announced that it expects to end the year with 20.1 million subscribers. Sirius ended fiscal 2009 with 18.8 million subscribers.

“I think it’s a combination of more cars being sold, I think they had a pretty conservative outlook generally, I think they’re penetrating the used market better than we thought,” said David Bank, Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets, in a recent CNBC interview.

Miller Tabek analyst David Joyce recently downgraded Sirius XM from BUY to NEUTRAL, citing valuation concerns, but maintained his short-term price target of $1.25 and long-term price target of $1.45. Joyce upgraded Sirius XM to BUY on July 7th in response to the company’s pre-announced Q2 subscriber metrics. Noting that SIRI was now currently trading about 6% away from his short-term $1.25 price target, and that the stock has increased 24% in just the past three months and 98% year-to-date.

“It is not that we just had a revelation that SIRI is more expensive than traditional media companies, but we wish to maintain discipline with our price targets,” Joyce said.
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SIRI is currently trading at about 13.7x Joyce’s 2011E OIBDA (Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization) estimate of $752 million, which he still views as an attractive 0.6x PEG (Price/Earnings To Growth) ratio based on his 22% long-term OIBDA CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) estimate, but at 53x 2010 estimated FCF (Free Cash Flow) Joyce sees Sirius XM’s valuation “far above other subscription-model companies in our universe.” Joyce noted that subscription-based cable operators were currently at an average of 5.6x 2011 estimated OIBDA multiple and an average 10.1x 2010 estimated FCF. Joyce also noted that SIRI was trading at about 27x his 2011 estimated operating income estimate of $380 million, which he pointed out was also far above the 10.8x 2011 estimated Operating Income average and the 14.4x 2010 estimated FCF average among other entertainment companies that Miller Tabek follows, which have mixed subscription, advertising, and content business models.

Last Thursday, Standard and Poor’s announced that it was upgrading Sirius XM to a “B” corporate credit rating for the company on CreditWatch with positive implications. Prior to this, its rating was “B.”

“The positive CreditWatch listing reflects the company’s prospects for continued improvement in operating performance and declining debt leverage for the remainder of 2010, which could lead to a rating upgrade,” a press release stated. S&P also mentioned the Howard Stern contract, stating that “the company’s five-year agreement with radio talk show host Howard Stern expires on Dec. 31, 2010. Despite onerous contract costs, Stern has been important to the growth of the service due to his loyal fan base and exclusive content, which is not available on terrestrial radio. We believe that subscriber churn would increase, potentially dramatically, should he decide not to renew his contract.”